Entering 2020, there are new changes in the release of foreign trade import and export data: the General Administration of Customs did not release january and February import and export data separately, but the first combined release. Analysts said the move is conducive to eliminating the Spring Festival misality factors on the growth rate of imports and exports.
According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports of 4.12 trillion yuan, down 9.6% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%, while imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
From the above data can be seen, although the first 2 months of export decline is larger, but only a small decline in imports, the impact of the epidemic on imports is not obvious, indicating that China's economic and trade has strong resilience, strong domestic demand. Faced with the possible drag on the global economy and external demand caused by the recent accelerated spread of overseas outbreaks, analysts suggest that the next phase of China's economy should supplement external demand with domestic demand.
In the first two months of this year, the outbreak had a smaller impact on imports, and there are still many bright spots in foreign trade.
The General Administration of Customs said that the decline in foreign trade imports and exports was mainly due to factors such as the outbreak of neo-crown pneumonia and the extension of the Spring Festival holiday. Among them, imports in the first 2 months only slightly decreased, the impact of the epidemic on imports is not obvious, mainly because China's economic and trade has a strong toughness and inertia, coupled with the loading of commodities and the pace of enterprise imports.
Since the outbreak of new crown pneumonia at the beginning of the year, due to the need for epidemic prevention, the Spring Festival holiday extended, enterprises to resume work delayed, resulting in a slowdown in export orders production. Tang Jianwei and Liu Xuezhi of the Bank of Communications' Financial Research Center said the sharp drop in exports in the first two months of this year was "expected" and that the smaller drop in imports was due to rising domestic demand for important medical materials such as masks, medicines and equipment, which contributed to some of the increase in imports.
Although imports and exports declined overall in the first two months, there were still many positive factors. Even under the influence of the "black swan" of the epidemic, the pace of adjustment and optimization of foreign trade structure has not stopped.
First, imports and exports to ASEAN and countries along the Belt and Road are still growing. In the first two months, China's imports and exports to traditional trading partners such as the European Union, the United States and Japan declined, with imports and exports to ASEAN increasing by 2% to 594.11 billion yuan, making ASEAN China's largest trading partner. During the same period, China's total imports and exports with the countries along the Belt and Road were 1.3 trillion yuan, up 1.8% YoY, 11.4 percentage points higher than China's foreign trade growth rate, accounting for 31.7%, accounting for more than 30%.
Second, private enterprises in the import and export of foreign trade is relatively more dynamic. Customs statistics show that in the first two months, private enterprises imported and exported 1.7 trillion yuan (down 6.6% YoY), accounting for 41.9% of the total value of imports and exports, up 1.3 percentage points YoY. The proportion of imports and exports of private enterprises has increased, reflecting the continuous optimization of the domestic business environment.
Third, imports of commodities and key consumer goods grew rapidly. In the first two months, imports of commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, coal and natural gas increased by 1.5%, 5.2%, 33.1% and 2.8%, respectively, according to customs statistics. During the same period, the value of agricultural imports increased by 6.8%, of which soybean imports increased by 14.2% and pork imports increased by 1.6 times.
In addition, according to customs data monitoring, the value of foreign trade imports and exports in February is increased step by step, the amount of enterprise declaration declarations is increasing step by step. According to a survey of 2,552 foreign trade sample enterprises conducted by the General Administration of Customs, 80.6% of enterprises have resumed work. It can be seen that the supply capacity of export enterprises is recovering rapidly.
Experts suggest that domestic demand to supplement external demand is expected to be after March imports are expected to rebound significantly.
Recent overseas outbreaks accelerated the spread of Italy, South Korea and other new crown pneumonia confirmed cases continue to increase. Global economic growth has been overshadowed by a significant increase in uncertainty over overseas outbreaks due to different medical conditions and attitudes and responses to outbreaks in different countries. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for 2020 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2 per cent.
New Era Securities macro research team said that the impact of the epidemic on China's exports or from the supply shock to foreign demand fell back, suggested that domestic demand to supplement external demand, of which infrastructure investment is the first choice. The macro view of the new era is that China needs not only a certain economic growth rate and steady employment, but also the quality of economic growth to achieve economic transformation, infrastructure investment in line with these two objectives, that is, a higher proportion of the old infrastructure steady growth, a lower proportion of new infrastructure to promote high-quality economic growth.
Tang Jianwei and Liu Xuezhi of the Bank of Communications' Financial Research Center said imports are expected to rebound significantly after March, supported by reconstruction demand after the outbreak. Chinese enterprises are stepping up the resumption of work and production, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, in order to take back the first two months of time, the post-epidemic reconstruction efforts are certainly not small, it is expected that the domestic post-epidemic reconstruction needs will form a better support for imports.
In addition, the General Administration of Customs has actively implemented the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, comprehensively promoted the prevention and control of the epidemic and promoted the stabilization of foreign trade, introduced a number of policy measures to ensure zero-delay customs clearance of epidemic prevention and control materials, respond to the impact of the epidemic to promote the steady growth of foreign trade, support the development of the Central European class and the comprehensive bonded area, and fully support the resumption of foreign trade enterprises and the steady growth of foreign trade. With the positive results of epidemic prevention and control, as well as the gradual implementation of various policy measures, market confidence is steadily improving. It should be said that the impact of the epidemic on imports and exports is temporary and phased, the long-term development of foreign trade to the good trend has not changed. China Net Finance March 10 (Reporter Li Chunxuan)